Most pharma launches miss.
The molecule is rarely why.
We looked at 50 of the biggest drug launches of the last five years. The ones that missed almost never failed on the science. They missed on the foundations underneath the launch. The Launch Decision Architecture is our framework for getting those foundations right before year one decides the outcome. Read it free, no sign-up.
The next three years bring one of the most crowded launch windows the industry has ever seen.
Around 96 significant launches are coming from the largest pharma companies between 2026 and 2028, most of them in 2026 alone. They will compete for the same prescribers, in the same therapy areas, at the same time. Call it a commercial traffic jam. In that environment, the old habit of winning attention by simply doing more (more reps, more messages, more frequency than the competitor next door) hits a hard ceiling. The launches that get through are the ones built on foundations that earn relevance, not the ones that shout loudest.
launches in 2026.
across 2027 – 2028.
A clear read on why launches miss, and a framework to get yours right.
Why launches really miss
Of 50 recent launches, the 15 clear misses almost never came down to the science. Thirteen missed on execution and foundations: access that wasn't ready, an operating model that couldn't run the launch, a diagnostic pathway that didn't yet exist, or a portfolio that cannibalised its own asset.
The three-layer Architecture
A simple structure for a launch that holds up under pressure: The Spine (what HQ sets and every market keeps), The Choice (the engagement model each country picks), and The Cycle (how that model evolves as the market moves).
The model most teams get wrong
Why defaulting to a bigger, more 'premium' field force is the single most expensive habit in launch planning, and when reach and relevance beat feet on the street.
The first six months
Why the opening months set a launch trajectory that's very hard to bend later, and what to put in place before launch day rather than after.
A diagnostic you can run
The two-stage diagnostic from the appendix: four constraints and eight scoring dimensions to choose the right launch model for a specific market, with the rationale documented so it survives the next budget review and the next team.
The numbers behind the paper.
misses came down to execution and foundations, not the science.
launches with a clear forecast delivered half or less of it. The same approval-grade science produced everything from a write-off to a fivefold blockbuster.
Read The Launch Decision Architecture.
The full white paper. 30 pages for free – no sign-up.
Worth a read if you have a launch on the horizon.
Want the underlying data? Take it with you.
The white paper stands on an analysis of 50 of the most-anticipated launches of 2020 to 2025. If you want to look under the bonnet, both the report and the raw data are yours to download.
The Launch Reality Report
Our visual synthesis of what 50 launches reveal about why launches miss, and the wave coming next. 18 pages.
The data
The full launch-by-launch dataset: pre-launch forecast against reported sales, with sources. The numbers behind the report.
Working on a launch?
We help commercial and medical teams build the foundations a launch depends on: data, segmentation, journeys, operating model and measurement. If a launch is on your plate, we're happy to talk. No deck, no pitch.